In this post I will try to cover some recent mistakes I have made and what I have learned from them. The charts shown have limited data as I can’t realistically share all the charts I did in these time frame including hours spent on that which I did not post. None of this is financial advice just my observations on a path to educate myself.
August 18th I called a bottom on BTC.D at 60%.
In hindsight doing so was a bit premature. Though as you will see in the next image BTC.D went sideways for a while. Small alt coins saw 80% declines. I could have waited till a more clear reversal happened.
One clear mistake I made here was that completely missed the gap that was created in May. I then also compounded that mistake by selling at 62% into alts even though I was expecting to see 64%. My reasoning was that if the market moved to fast i’d miss the trade due to not doing this full time.
I have now sat on positions watching them bleed against Bitcoin. To be fair to myself I picked up most positions after a 60–80% pull back. Though the % loss numbers since then could be painful to watch perspective is valuable.
Lets say you have a price $100 then 80% drop. So you buy at $20. Then lets say in my worst cases I have seen 40% pullback.(Others are up and some 10% etc..) $20 minus 40% is $12. That means from the original price of $100 I bought at $20 and price went to $12. 100 to 12 is 88% down. Since 80 % of the loss was captured in buying at $20. 80/88 = 90%. That means even as I was the price crash 40% which feels like a dumb trade I would have managed to capture 90% of the downwards movement.
There is clear room for progress here though i’ve learned to not panic and change positions. Doing a bunch of flip flop back and forth. I am riding this out till alts are seeing to much market attention then back to Bitcoin. All the indicators seem to be pointing at market euphoria.
I’ll continue to be fearful of Bitcoin while others are greedy and greedy on altcoins while others are fearful.